2011 Preview Roundtable: Denard Robinson’s Production

Previously: Breakout Player, Impact Freshman, Big Ten Favorite, The Running Back Situation, National Champion

We’re back with another 2011 preview roundtable, in which each of the site’s three writers debate key topics for the upcoming season. Today, we look at Denard Robinson’s fit in the new offense and predict his statistical output for the 2011 season.

Ace: Let’s just get this out of the way now, for those of you worried that Michigan’s offense will try to be an exact replica of the 1985 San Francisco 49ers:

That, my friends, is the first snap of Michigan’s 2011 spring game, and you’ll notice that the formation, at least, strongly resembles what the Wolverines ran last year under Rich Rodriguez. Some of the plays will be familiar as well. The money quotes, straight from the mouth of offensive coordinator Al Borges [emphasis mine]:

“Our offense is not zone read or spread,” offensive coordinator Al Borges said, “but we’ll do some of that stuff.”

Borges envisions Michigan’s quarterbacks lining up under center about half the time, perhaps a little more than half. The rest of the time, they’ll line up in the shotgun. In the shotgun, Michigan will use two running backs about half the time and one back or no backs the other half the time.

But before you think you have it all figured out, read this.

“Schematically, we’re blowing everything up and starting over again,” Borges said. “We’re still going to gear everything we do offensively to the skills of the people that are doing it, in particular the quarterback. Are we going to look just like we did at San Diego State? Probably not.

“We may in three or four years. We’ll see how this thing evolves.”

So, while we probably won’t see an offense predicated on Denard right, Denard left, Denard middle, and surprise(!) Denard pass — which could be a very good thing, especially when it comes to Robinson’s durability — there will still be plenty of opportunity for Robinson to work his magic on the ground, especially if he becomes comfortable taking off when a passing play breaks down, something he didn’t do at all last year. The zone read might not be the centerpiece of the offense, but it will still be implemented, and I expect it will be effective.

Al Borges may not be the perfect offensive coordinator for taking advantage of Denard Robinson’s skill set, but he’s also not an idiot, and only an idiot wouldn’t find a way to utilize Shoelace’s prodigious running talents. So far, Borges has said everything I’ve wanted to hear in that regard (see above), so the question for me isn’t as much how Robinson will fare as a runner — if I had to place a wager, I’d still bet on Denard leading the team in rushing this season — but how much he’ll develop as a passer in an offense with more complicated route schemes and reads.

Lest us forget, Robinson improved dramatically as a quarterback from his freshman to sophomore seasons, going from one-dimensional runner with a scattershot-at-best arm to a true dual-threat quarterback, raising his efficiency rating from a paltry 91.59 to 149.58, good for 20th in the country. Obviously, an equal improvement is out of the question — the best rating in the country last year was Kellen Moore’s 182.64, and Robinson’s rating was helped greatly by those unstoppable play-action passes where he’d take a step forward and the entire defense would abandon their assignments and leave gaping holes in the secondary — but I expect Robinson to become a more accurate passer. This improvement may not show up in the stats, but I think Robinson’s passing numbers will look similar to last year’s, just with more attempts.

Last year, Robinson completed 182 of 291 attempts (62.5%) for 2570 yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while rushing for 1702 yards and 14 touchdowns on 256 carries (6.6 yards per carry). My guess for this year is something along these lines: 240 completions on 380 attempts (63.2%) for 3230 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, with 1100 yards rushing on 170 carries (6.5 yards per carry) and another 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Yes, this is a rosy outlook, even if the interception number is still a tad high, but I truly believe that the concerns over Robinson’s ability to adapt to this offense are overblown, and we’ll once again see a potential Heisman contender at quarterback for the Wolverines this season.

Alex: There has been a ton of hand-wringing over the offense for this upcoming season, and at the center of this consternation is the potentially problematic combination of Denard Robinson and Al Borges. The fear that Robinson will be handcuffed is a legitimate one; it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that a guy who’s a generous 6-0, 190 lbs is probably not well-suited to hand off the ball thirty times per game from under center and try to function as a guy who takes most of his pass attempts on play actions and three- or five-step drops. Fortunately for Michigan, Borges wasn’t born yesterday and I’m very confident that he’ll tailor the offense to fit Denard’s skill set. I have a feeling that a lot of this rhetoric about toughness, “manball”, and a power running game is just to say what Michigan fans want to hear — either the coaches have figured out that the personnel on the team isn’t suited for a downhill running game already, or they’ll find out quickly once Michigan starts competing against good defenses that they shouldn’t run a Wisconsin-like offense.  To their credit, I think they’ll make sure that Denard’s talents are used correctly, but that still doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll do very well.

The biggest problems I foresee with Denard’s game are his passing abilities and decision making. He was virtually unprepared for college, the offense, and pretty much everything when he set foot on campus three weeks before his first game, and last year he had a season of game experience, tons of time spent on the practice field and film room, and synergy and confidence wit his teammates. Statistically, Denard was phenomenal, and his running ability was pretty awesome any way you slice it. His passing ability however, was less impressive. Since so much time has passed since the end of last season, it’s easy to remember the Denard Robinson that was in total command of the offense, was confident, dangerous, and garnered all the early hype. It’s easy to forget the Denard Robinson that through two interceptions into the endzone against Michigan State, was replaced by Tate Forcier against Iowa (and Tate played better than Denard), and was benched in favor of Forcier midway through the Purdue game that was admittedly played in a monsoon. All of those highlight runs throughout the season are now coloring our judgment of Denard as a passer — he was certainly above average as a first year starter — seeing as how he didn’t perform at even an All-Big Ten level when he threw the ball. I realize that he was dinged up throughout the season, and yes, a lingering injury to his shoulder affected his arm a lot, but it’s not like he was a great passer even when he was healthy. He’s a Heisman-level ball-carrier and a decent passer. Fortunately, there’s a ton of room for improvement.

Improvement is a given when a quarterback is in his second year of an offensive system, but Al Borges is bringing a more complex West Coast passing attack to Ann Arbor. It’s an entirely new system for Denard, and he struggled mightily during the Spring Game (the usual caveats about the fallacies of drawing conclusions from spring scrimmages, but let’s be honest, a Heisman contender — like many Michigan fans feel that Denard is — shouldn’t do that badly). Another learning curve will be presented to Denard, and I don’t doubt that he’ll succeed, but it might take some time. Last year, he threw lots of bubble screens off of quick reads, lots of easy slant or curl routes, and frequently hit wide-open receivers after showing run. This year, he’ll be forced to make way more complex reads with his wide receivers and throw with NFL-type passing routes and combinations. Yes, he’ll have a year of experience as a starter which does definitely help, but still, the learning curve is steep. If he can handle a brand new system that’s more difficult than the old one, it would be tremendous for Michigan football. I wouldn’t count on it though: these things take time.

Last year’s stats:

182 completions on 291 attempts (62.5%) for 2570 yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. 256 rushing attempts for 1702 yards (6.6 yards per carry), 14 touchdowns.

My rough guess:

200 completions on 325 attempts (57.1%) for 2700 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. 150 rushing attempts for 900 yards (6 yards per carry), 8 touchdowns.

Jack: When this recruiting cycle started off, my overly hopeful dreams were not the usual, of Michigan snagging the top players at each position, stealing away the likes of Andrus Peat and Dorial Green-Beckham, as they might be in any normal year. No, this year, I wanted quarterbacks. Lots and lots (meaning 2) of high profile QBs. Ideally, of course, that would mean landing some combination of Zeke Pike, Gunner Kiel, Wes Lunt (big fan of his), or Tyler O’Connor. Why so many, you ask yourself? Quite simply, I wanted Denard as a running back in this offense. A really fast, lightning quick, dreadlock-rocking, eye-popping tailback. And quite simply, we don’t have the depth to do that. Leaving the QB position right now would cripple our depth, leaving a (should-be redshirt freshman?) sophomore cannon-armed gun-slinger, and a true freshman recent-Purdue-defector. If that doesn’t scare you, perhaps you’d be interested in a job as an alligator wrestler (all kidding aside, that was my dream job for at least 6 years of my life…during my 20s..)?

But the move wasn’t just to benefit the running back position. I’m having a great deal of difficulty seeing Denard as the answer at QB, even if it is just for two years. Unless ‘Borges-Style-West-Coast’ means a heavy deal of shotgun/option plays, where we still spread the defense, Robinson will struggle, and mightily. His arm looked erratic at best during the Spring Game, and the latest scuttlebutt from sources here and there is that Robinson’s having a hard time getting a good grip on the offense. Do I think he’ll work hard to get it all down? Of course, he’s one of the hardest, most humble workers on the team. But sometimes it’s just not a good fit. I can’t help but see a vastly slashed statline from last year. Will interceptions go down? I think that’s a reasonable expectation. That more depends on the chemistry he’s developed with his receivers and a grown maturity as a passer. But will his number of touchdowns thrown go down? I’m almost sure of it. For one, when the formation is spread, it’s likely we’ll be seeing a lot more TEs than we used to. So, instead of wily slot ninjas, the goal will be to out-size the opponent. Why’s that a bad thing? Well let’s take a gander at the TE depth chart shall we? This year, it should look something like this:

Experienced Veteran
Highly Touted TE Who’s Failed to Impress Thus Far, Very Little Experience
Fifth Year Senior Who’s Made a Career Switching Between Offense and Defense
Undersized Former WR
True Freshman [Ed: And one coming off major knee surgery, at that.]
DOOOOM

While there’s a good chance one of them could break out, Koger looks like the only reliable target in the group. And even he had a case of the dropsies at times last year, losing his occasional starting role to Martell Webb. All in all, I’m a little concerned at the moment, but almost all of my judgment is based on rumors and conjecture, so maybe the staff will prove me entirely wrong and show me how foolish my skepticism was. Statline?
MOAR pass attempts, FEWER runs, BETTER (?) efficiency. 232/351 passing, 15 TDs, 8 INTs. 153 attempts, 1009 yards rushing.

2011 Preview Roundtable: National Champion

Can running back Trent Richardson lead Alabama to a second title in three years?

Now that TWB has an actual staff of writers, we’ve decided to expand our preview content to take advantage of the variety of opinions among the three of us. This is the fifth in a series of roundtable posts previewing the 2011 season. Today, we each throw out our early pick for 2011 national champion.

Previously: Breakout Player, Impact Freshman, Big Ten Favorite, The Running Back Situation

Ace: Nearly everyone is picking either Alabama or Oklahoma to win this year’s title, and there’s good reason: ‘Bama is once again ridiculously talented, and running back Trent Richardson should be a Heisman contender, and the Sooners should light up scoreboards with regularity thanks to their own Heisman hopeful, quarterback Landry Jones, and an explosive offense that returns eight starters.

But the national title isn’t won on pure talent — scheduling, like it or not, plays a huge role. Alabama must navigate a murderer’s row of a schedule, with away games at Penn State, Florida, and an emerging Mississippi State squad and home contests against Arkansas, Tennessee, and a nearly-as-talented LSU team. Oklahoma must hit the road to play Florida State in September and Oklahoma State in December, two games against likely preseason top ten teams that could easily trip up their run to the title game. Throw in difficult matchups with Missouri, Texas (if they can bounce back from last year’s disaster), and Texas A&M, and this year’s clear-cut favorite will be hard-pressed to finish the season undefeated.

There is a team out there, however, that has both the talent and the schedule to make an unexpected run at the national championship this year, emerging from a period of non-relevance much like Auburn last season. Florida State returns 15 starters from a team that finished 10-4 last season, and new starting QB E.J. Manuel should be a more-than-capable replacement for the departed Christian Ponder. Even with the unexpected loss of wideout Taiwan Easterling to a professional baseball career, the Seminoles have great talent at the skill positions, and their offensive line should be one of the best in the country thanks to a talented returning group that boasts a combined 112 career starts. The defense should be strong as well, with eight returning starters bolstered by an influx of former blue-chip recruits like DE Tank Carradine and LBs Christian Jones and Jeff Luc.

As for the ‘Noles’s schedule, they don’t have it easy — the aforementioned Sept. 17 home game against Oklahoma will obviously be a huge test — but it isn’t exactly killer, either, thanks to a relatively-weak ACC. I think FSU should be able to dominate an in-conference schedule that sees them miss a matchup with fellow powerhouse Virginia Tech unless they meet in the ACC title game (a distinct possibility), and a season-ending road game at Florida looks far less daunting than usual after the Gators’s 8-5 season in 2010. I think we’re in for another surprise national champion this season, and the Seminoles are my bet to be the squad that pulls it off.

Alex: Just like last year, this year really doesn’t have a bona fide preseason national championship favorite. In last year’s preseason AP poll, the top five read as follows: Alabama (10-3), Ohio State (12-1 0-13), Boise State (12-1), Florida (8-5), Texas (5-7). Oregon was ranked 11th, and eventual national champion Auburn started the season just inside the top 25 at #22. While I highly doubt that this year’s consensus top five will be as off-base as last years, and while I doubt that a team will move from outside of the top 20 into the national championship game, I wouldn’t be surprised if an off-the-radar team won a national title this year.

I think it’s best to look at all of the legitimate national title contenders from each BCS Conference (and Boise State, TCU, and uh, Notre Dame of course) to whittle down the list a little bit.

SEC — Since the SEC has won the last 5 national championships, I think it’s best to start in the Southeast to look for the national championship favorites. The SEC East — much like last year — will be much weaker than usual; Georgia and South Carolina are the tentative favorites, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see either team lose a couple games before the SEC title game (although Georgia only draws Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State from the West, easily the best possible draw.) The West however, is stacked. There are two consensus top five teams, Alabama and LSU, a fringe top ten team, Arkansas, an up-and-coming Mississippi State team, and the defending national champions, Auburn. Heck, Auburn might even finish behind a rebuilding Ole Miss team. Out of those three top SEC West teams, I think one will make it to the national title game (even with one loss) and for my money, I’ll take Alabama. They get LSU and Arkansas at home, and their toughest road games are at Mississippi State, Florida, and Penn State — not exactly a murderers row. Plus, LSU and Arkansas face Oregon and Texas A&M in the non-conference slate respectively, and both should be at least top 15 teams. I’m picking Alabama for one national championship game slot: if they can get their quarterback situation settled, the combination of Trent Richardson, the best offensive line in college football, and a bunch of blue chipper multi-year starters on defense coached by Nick Saban should push them into the #1 slot.

Big XII — Much like the SEC, there are two or three teams that could contend for a national championship. Oklahoma has maybe the most talented team in the country, and the years of consistently impressive recruiting have paid off. They have explosiveness on offense with Landry Jones at quarterback, a few blue chip running backs filling the shoes of DeMarco Murray, and an excellent receiving corps lead by Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills, as well as a very solid defense, headed by star LB Travis Lewis. The Sooners face Florida State and Oklahoma State on the road, and while those are two top ten teams, I still think Oklahoma will win both (and could even survive a loss from Florida State) to make it to the national championship game. Oklahoma State is breaking in a new offensive coordinator, but the Weeden-to-Blackmon combination is the most lethal in all of college football. Until OSU wins a big game though, I’m hesitant to say that this will be the year they break through. Texas A&M is a darkhorse contender, but I’ll be surprised if they beat Oklahoma on the road or Arkansas at a neutral site.

Big Ten — I don’t think any team will be a national title contender. Ohio State could have been before the Pryor and Tressel fiasco and I’m not mourning that one. People think Wisconsin could contend now that Wilson is there, but it will probably be a few games before he jells with the team and Wisconsin reaches its potential.

ACC — Ever since the ACC raided the Big East of its bell cows (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College) the mighty ACC has sent a grand total of zero teams to the BCS title game, and no team has really even sniffed an undefeated season. Fortunately for the conference, it looks like two teams could contend for the national championship, and they’re actually in different divisions. Florida State’s toughest game is against Oklahoma, and if they win this game, they’ll probably be 12-0 heading into the ACC Championship game. Virginia Tech gas won the ACC in 3 out of the past 4 seasons and while they haven’t lost fewer than three games in each of those seasons, I still think that this could be the year for the Hokies. If hyped quarterback Logan Thomas can step in for Tyrod Taylor, the schedule is a breeze and VT could easily take an undefeated season into the championship game, where I think they’ll lose to FSU. If Florida State beats Oklahoma, I think they’ll go 13-0, but that’s a huge if.

PAC-12 — The PAC-12 has two elite teams once again in Oregon and Stanford, it’s just that they’re in the same division. Oregon faces LSU in Dallas (without their best defensive player Cliff Harris, he of the 119 mph joyride) and Stanford on the road, plus they lose most of their solid defense and offensive line from a year ago. Stanford has a better shot of running the table in my opinion, but until David Shaw proves that he can keep the Cardinal at Jim Harbuagh’s level, I don’t think that it would be wise to pick Stanford to make it into the national title game.

Big East — hahahah

Non-BCS — I don’t think the country is ready to put Boise State in the national championship game, and while I think they’ll go undefeated with wins over Georgia in Atlanta and TCU at home, they’ll still be kept out of the title game. Notre Dame is more interesting, as they have a schedule loaded with decent but not great teams. The game against Stanford out west is probably their toughest game, but I figure that they’ll slip up a few times before then.

In no particular order:

Darkhorses:

TCU
Boise State
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Virginia Tech
Stanford
Notre Dame

Contenders:

LSU
Florida State
Oregon
Oklahoma State

National Title game:

Oklahoma def. Alabama

Jack: I’ve heard a number of teams suggested for as the ‘most explosive’, ‘most complete’, ‘most experienced’, etc, since the end of the season. But ultimately, I think this question was relatively easy to answer. There are about 6-8 teams that I personally believe have a legitimate shot at going all the way this year, but there’s only one with no holes, no caveats, no strings attached. What do I mean? Well, let’s look at LSU first. They’re a “ok-we-can-win-as-long-as-Jordan-Jefferson-plays-well” team. The talent’s there, but Jefferson has only flashed real leadership and consistently dependable decision making ability. Oregon has always been known as an offensive power-house, and could be without star CB Cliff Harris (easily their best defensive playmaker) for the opener against the aforementioned LSU. Take away experienced defensive bastions like DEs Kenny Rowe and Brandon Bair, LBs Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews, as well as CB Talmadge Jackson III, all of whom graduated last year, and add on the turmoil surrounding the program right now, and they’re in a precarious position right now. Perennial powerhouse Alabama has to break in a new QB. I could go on and on, but the point is, only one school doesn’t show a glaring weakness.

For years and years, Oklahoma has been one little mistake, one bad game, one poor call away from a National Title. But this year, the red carpet has been laid out in front of them. A weak Big 12 (or whatever they’re calling it now) combined with a comfortable schedule gives them a great opportunity to put Bob Stoops and the Sooners back over the hump. RS JR Landry Jones returns to quarterback one of the most explosive, up-tempo offenses in the country. Although he struggled some with interceptions last year (most notably 3 against OK State..a game they only won by 6 points) he started looking more and more comfortable stepping out of Sam Bradford’s shadow at the end of the year. And it would be hard not to succeed with the weapons he has around him, including All-American WR Ryan Broyles (short, but quick as they come), the short-but-speedy Roy Finch, who looks to break out with Demarco Murray now gone, and a line that returns 4 starters. While they only return 5-6 starters defensively, the unit will be bolstered by experienced veterans like LB Travis Lewis (future 1st round talent), DE Frank Alexander, and MLB Tom Wort. Young players like LB/S Tony Jefferson (Freshman All American), LB Corey Nelson (who tore up the offseason), CB Gabe Lynn (Scout’s #1 CB in 2008), and DT Jamarkus McFarland (former 5*) could all ignite a spark in the defense as well.

At the risk of sounding callous, it’s also important to note the binding inspiration that may well drive this team. Over the offseason, LB Austin Box met a tragic end to his young life. I would imagine that this season will be dedicated to Box, who was going into his senior season and would likely have started. May he rest in peace.

2011 Preview Roundtable: The Running Back Situation

Mike Cox has displayed brief flashes of brilliance against inferior competition.

Now that TWB has an actual staff of writers, we’ve decided to expand our preview content to take advantage of the variety of opinions among the three of us (well, two, today, as Jack is taking a well-deserved vacation). This is the fourth in a series of roundtable posts previewing the 2011 season. Today, Alex and I predict who will emerge among the running backs in Michigan’s crowded backfield.

Previously: Breakout Player, Impact Freshman, Big Ten Favorite

Ace: I’ve made my stance pretty clear on this subject, in that I believe freshman Thomas Rawls — if not right away, then at some point this season — will become the team’s top running back. The coaching staff gave the current backs on the roster every chance to step up and take the number one job this spring, and instead we got one hell of a non-answer from offensive coordinator Al Borges:

“To say we have a frontline back, a guy we’re saying, ‘This guy’s the guy’ — we’ve had flashes of excellence from all of them and that’s not a decision we have to make today,” Borges said. “But I like those kids.”

That’s not to say that none of the upperclassmen are capable, but all have issues that lend pause to an argument in their favor. Michael Shaw, when healthy, has fantastic speed and could become a game-breaker in the backfield. Unfortunately, he’s rarely healthy, hasn’t displayed a lot of power in his career (something emphasized by this staff), and in general looks more and more like the second coming of Carlos Brown, another tantalizing burner who could never put it all together due to a variety of injuries. Vincent Smith is the nominal returning starter, but he’s tiny, has struggled when running out of pro-style formations, and doesn’t have the top-end speed that could negate his lack of size — Smith could, and probably should, be the team’s third-down back, but I doubt he’ll get a much bigger role at this point. Fitzgerald Toussaint had four-star recruiting hype, but he’s constantly been hurt during his Wolverine career, and nobody knows if he really has the ability to be a difference-maker at the collegiate level, 60-yard rushes against Bowling Green notwithstanding.

That leaves two running backs with college experience who I think have the best shot at major playing time, especially right out of the gate. There’s been a lot of talk about Mike Cox stepping up into a much bigger role this year, and nobody would like to see that more than me (well, except probably the coaches and the Cox family, but you get my drift). He’s the only back on the roster who combines ideal size — 6-0, 211 pounds — with true breakaway speed, and he’s clearly the most athletically-gifted running back on the squad. That’s shown when he’s seen the field for Michigan, as Cox has 19 career rushes for 169 yards and two touchdowns, for a stellar 8.9 yards per carry. Unfortunately, those carries came against Eastern Michigan, Delaware State, and Bowling Green, all creampuff opponents whom Michigan blew out, affording much of the depth chart the chance to put up huge numbers in garbage time. Otherwise, Rich Rodriguez’s staff never trusted Cox despite the lack of a true feature back amidst reports — as well as on-field evidence — that Cox never mastered the playbook and was generally unreliable on the field. This wouldn’t be a huge concern for a young quarterback, but this causes major trepidation when discussing a running back. It just shouldn’t be that difficult for a gifted player — not one playing one of the easier positions on the field to absorb the playbook and make an early impact — to master the position well enough to at least see the field. This quote from Borges (from the same Daily article) may spell doom for Cox’s chances at the starting job:

“He has to do more flashes,” Borges said of what someone must do to earn the starting gig. “And be complete — block in protection, run the football (and) be consistent. I think that’s the deal, the guy who demonstrates the most consistency is going to play the most.”

Until I see on-field evidence that Cox finally gets it, and can be reliable to be at the right place at the right time (and that includes pass-blocking and receiving, not just running the football, otherwise this job would be his to lose), I think he’ll be a change-of-pace back at best.

That leaves Stephen Hopkins, all 6-0, 227 pounds of him. Hopkins rushed for 151 yards on 37 carries (4.1 yards per carry) and four touchdowns as a true freshman last season while mostly playing in short-yardage situations. He certainly has the ability to run north-south, which should give him a leg up on the competition, but the question is whether or not he has the speed and shiftiness to be an every-down back. His speed is more Mike Hart (albeit on a much larger frame) than Mike Shaw, so Hopkins must prove that he can be elusive enough to the point that his lack of a home-run threat won’t be damaging to the offense — luckily, he might be helped greatly in this regard in that Michigan already has a home-run threat in the backfield in Denard Robinson. That could be quite the thunder and lightning combination, so long as Hopkins holds on to the football, something he struggled with at times last season. Of the returning backs, I think Hopkins has the best shot to start on day one, and he could very well have a breakout year if he holds on to the job.

To me, however, Rawls has the combination of great size — 5-10, 214 lbs., according to Rivals — shiftiness, and enough speed to take it to the house that (if he’s a quick study with the playbook) makes him the ideal candidate to be the feature back in this offense. It’s doubtful that Justice Hayes, who seems a much better fit as a third-down back/slot receiver, sees the field much this fall, so it’ll be up to Rawls to seize the job if none of the above players is up to snuff. Whether that happens before the opener against Western Michigan or later in the season may hinge on the willingness of the coaching staff to trust the ball in the hands of a true freshman, but Brady Hoke and Borges want to win right away (duh), and Rawls may very well give the team the best chance to do so.

Alex: For the running back position, I really doubt that any one back will seize the job outright and become the feature back with the majority of the carries. I think you’ll see a running back by committee approach — despite the coaches’ apparent hesitance to do that — because there are a ton of backs with varying skill sets and talents; it’s just that I don’t think any of them are good enough to take the job over all of the others. Vincent Smith got a lot of playing time last year, even as he was continuing to rehab a knee injury from the year before, and I like his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, plus I think his shiftiness and lack of size can be an asset when used situationally, it’s just that I don’t think he has the ability to run well from under center (we witnessed this last year) in short yardage situations, and I don’t think he’s durable enough to take a huge amount of carries. Mike Shaw played a bit as a freshman and in each year since, and now that he’s a senior, it looks like he has a good crack at the job. He’s been nicked up throughout his career, and he might be the most explosive back on the team — he was a track star in high school — but I wonder why he hasn’t taken on a bigger role in his career, and if he can stay healthy. Stephen Hopkins has the desired size for the big, Big Ten stereotype back, and he looked decent as a freshman. I think he could take the role of starter, and he’ll be used in short yardage situations at the very least. Fitz Toussaint has been getting lots of hype throughout his career, but it seems like he might have Brandon Minor’s injury-prone curse. I think Justice Hayes and Thomas Rawls each are promising prospects in their own right: they’re true freshmen though.

If it seems like I’m being evasive and non-committal, it’s because I am. I really don’t think any back will be able to wrestle the starting job away from the pack decisively, and the spring game (even though it’s a pretty awful predictor for the regular season) seems to suggest that there won’t be one feature back. The guy I think will get the plurality of the carries though, is Mike Cox. I’ve mentioned this in the breakout player roundtable, but I’ve jumped on the Touch The Banner bandwagon big time and am singing Cox’s praises. I think he has the best opportunity now that Rodriguez and Magee are gone; for whatever reason, it seemed like the coaches didn’t want him on the field very much. Now that Hoke and Borges are here with a clean slate, Mike Cox has the opportunity to show off his balance, cutback ability, and breakaway speed. I know that I just said that the spring game is a bad way to evaluate things, but his run over Brandon Herron and into the secondary was encouraging at the very least. I think Cox will get the plurality of carries, but it won’t be a clear-cut majority, and I would imagine that certain running back recruits might see an opportunity for 2012.

2011 Preview Roundtable: Big Ten Favorite

Will the addition of N.C. State transfer Russell Wilson propel Wisconsin to the title?

Now that TWB has an actual staff of writers, we’ve decided to expand our preview content to take advantage of the variety of opinions among the three of us. This is the third in a series of roundtable posts previewing the 2011 season, and we’ll attempt to cover Michigan, the Big Ten, and the national scene as we approach football season. Previously, we covered our picks for this year’s breakout player and best freshman for the Wolverines. Today, we expand our outlook to the Big Ten, and pick our preseason favorite to take the conference title:

Ace: When making this pick, there were a few teams that I could eliminate immediately: I’ll believe a Northwestern title run when I see it; Iowa’s defense was ravaged by graduation and the NFL Draft; Penn State’s quarterbacks underwhelm and I just don’t think they’re a title-caliber team; Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota don’t have a chance; and Michigan State is Michigan State — they’ll find a way to take themselves out of the race.

That leaves four teams. No, I’m not picking Michigan. There are far too many variables that could easily submarine a conference title run, plus I’d like to do my best not to come off as a complete, unabashed homer. Next.

Nebraska has a lot of talent, and Taylor Martinez could be a great college quarterback if he puts it all together. However, Taylor Martinez also completely fell apart last year — albeit as a redshirt freshman — and now he has a new offensive coordinator to deal with. The Huskers also must face the Big Ten’s toughest schedule (it’s like a frat-pledge hazing ritual), with road games against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, as well as tough matchups with Ohio State (the week they return their now-Tat-4 from suspension, barring further punishment), Michigan Sate, Northwestern, and Iowa. Their only Big Ten game against a team that doesn’t have a conceivable shot at making the inaugural title game is a road game at Minnesota, and that’s sandwiched between their contests against OSU and MSU. If all schedules were created equal, I’d lean towards Nebraska, but they aren’t, and I’m not.

Wisconsin adds the stud quarterback they were lacking thanks to the NCAA’s graduate transfer rule, which allowed ex-N.C. State standout Russell Wilson to step right in for 2011 without sitting out a season. The Badgers’s schedule is no picnic either, however, as they open their conference slate against Nebraska, face back-to-back road games against MSU and OSU in October, and end their season against a Penn State team that may be hitting their stride if their quarterback controversy is settled. The defense also provides cause for concern, as they lose five starters, including first-round pick J.J. Watt, from last year’s No. 25 scoring defense and No. 20 total defense — it might be tough to improve on those numbers, and there’s a good chance they fall off a little. The Badgers also benefited from a +14 turnover margin last year, the sixth-best in the country, and with a new quarterback — albeit an experienced one — and the regress-to-the-mean nature of turnovers, I’d expect that figure to fall back to earth as well.

So, call me crazy (and maybe several four-letter words to boot), but I’m picking the scandal-ridden Buckeyes to emerge as Big Ten champs, barring an NCAA ruling that cripples their season. Remember, we’re picking the conference champ here, so four of the five games that Posey, Herron, Adams, and Thomas will sit out don’t have any bearing on this category. The Buckeyes will have to face Michigan State without those four, but by that point I expect they’ll have found a quarterback who can at least hold down the fort, whether it’s the “safe” choice in senior/career backup Joe Bauserman or blue-chip freshman Braxton Miller. Ohio State faces MSU at home, and both Wisconsin and Penn State must visit the Horseshoe as well. Road games against Nebraska and, yes, Michigan will be tough, but I don’t expect any Big Ten team to emerge from the regular season unscathed (in fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a conference champion with two in-conference losses), and even with the suspensions and the loss of Terrelle Pryor the Buckeyes have the most talent of any team in the conference. Losing Jim Tressel hurts, no question, but with the rest of the coaching staff intact I expect that will have more of an impact on the recruiting trail than on the field, at least this season.

If I’m wrong, I will happily accept your insults as I rejoice in the collapse of the Buckeye Empire.

Alex: The Big Ten strikes me as a league with a lot of pretty decent teams, yet I really don’t think anybody in the conference will be able to contend for the national title this year. Ohio State looked like a bona-fide national championship contender before the Tat-5 were suspended, and obviously things have fortunately deteriorated down in Columbus and will hopefully continue to do so. Nebraksa is coming in with a lot of hype and a lot of people are predicting a great season for the Cornhuskers, but their offense — even with a healthy Taylor Martinez — will probably struggle in its first year under a new offensive coordinator in a league with better defenses than the Big 12. Those are (or were) the prohibitive favorites in the Leaders and Legends divisions respectively (and I’ll continue my plea for a simple East-West divisional nomenclature), but there are plenty of teams that can contend in each of those divisions.

In the Leaders (EAST) Division, it looks to be a two-horse race between Wisconsin and Ohio State. Penn State is not a legitimate contender in my opinion: there are too many questions on both sides of the ball that need to be addressed for PSU, including a less-than-desirable quarterback situation, plus it’s not like they were particularly good last year — they didn’t beat anyone with a .500 record or better in the Big Ten. Illinois could surprise some teams, but they’re a middle-of-the-pack team as well. No, I think it’s down to Ohio State and Wisconsin, and before the Tressel saga, I wouldn’t hesitate to peg Ohio State as the favorites easily, even if they were without Pryor, Herron, Posey, and Adams for the first five games. Since then, Tressel has resigned, Pryor is long gone, and now the situation in Columbus looks less clear. With Bauserman and Fickell at the helm, Ohio State — however talented they still are — looks way worse than they did a few months ago, and of course, it could get worse over the offseason as well. That leaves the door wide open for the Badgers, who have recently addressed their biggest need by signing free agent gaining the transfer of former N.C. State star quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson is the real deal, and paired with the best rushing attack in the country outside of Oregon and maybe Alabama, Wisconsin should roll over opponents all season long. Their defense isn’t great, and that’s probably why they aren’t a national title contender, but it’s good enough to win the Leaders (EAST).

Nebraska is the tentative favorite in the Legends (WEST), although I think that this division could see more surprises than the Leaders (EAST). Michigan State is coming off of a deceptive 11-2 season: the Spartans overachieved big time compared to how good they actually were, but I do think that they’ll actually be better this year than they were last year; however, their schedule points to more of a solid 8- or 9-win campaign than a division title. Iowa regressed a bit last season, but could still have a very good team this year. They miss out on Ohio State and get divisional opponents (Michigan State, Michigan and Northwestern) at home, so the schedule’s favorable, but Jake Vandenberg will have to be exceptional for Iowa to contend for a conference title. Michigan and Northwestern are darkhorses that could conceivably contend for the Legends (WEST) title, although I don’t think that either team really has a good chance at making it past Nebraska, MSU and Iowa. That leaves Nebraska as the favorite by default, and while they aren’t a perfect team by any means and their schedule is absolutely brutal, I’ll take their defense and call for a Legends (WEST) title in their first year in the conference.

That has Wisconsin vs. Nebraska as the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, and even though I think Nebraska will probably beat the Badgers in Madison on October 1, I think Wilson and the Badgers will ease into their stride and beat the Huskers to take the Big Ten title and a berth in the Rose Bowl. That’s it, I’m saying that Wisconsin is the Big Ten favorite right now. Thank goodness Michigan will not face them this year.

Jack: October 1, 2011. All early indications will tell you that that might be the just the first meeting between Nebraska and Wisconsin this year. Nebraska (Legends Division) and Wisconsin (Leaders Division) have to be the two most dominant and complete teams in the conference this year. But which one’s better? Riding off the news that former NC State stud Russell Wilson will be playing for Wisconsin this year, the common sentiment has been that Wisconsin is now over the top, that Wilson was the icing on the cake, and that it will take a heroic, once-in-a-lifetime performance to bring down this Goliath. With Ohio State crumbling, Michigan still rebuilding, Penn State still young, and Michigan State not quite there yet, it’s up to Nebraska to slay the dragon. But can they?

I believe so. They’ll have a returning starter at QB (and a monster at that) in redshirt sophomore Taylor Martinez, who averaged almost 75 rushing yards a game during the year, with over 1,600 yards of passing thrown in there too (pardon the pun). At running back, junior Rex Burkhead looks to take over the feature running back spot vacated by (current Washington Redskins tailback) Roy Helu. Burkhead is no slouch himself, coming back from a year with over 900 yards rushing, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The defense will be led by a veteran group of future NFL prospects, including CB Alphonzo Dennard, LB Levonte Davis, and a terrifying interior D-Line headlined by DT Baker Steinkuhler and DT Jared Crick. Young talents the Huskers scored in last year’s recruiting class could find their way onto the field, including CB Charles Jackson, RB Aaron Green, DT Todd Peat, and even athlete Jamal Turner. At least one of their trio of talented linemen they signed (C Ryne Reeves, G Ryan Klachko, and T Tyler Moore) could find time on a very young line.

I have two concerns about the Huskers. First, Taylor Martinez likes to run a lot. And Michigan fans should know best, a true dual-threat is bound to get banged around in the Big Ten. But what’s behind Martinez, should he go down with an injury? The QB position has faced major attrition in Lincoln lately, most recently with Cody Green moving on to greener pastures. Zac Lee left last year. Stud ’11 signee Bubba Starling may choose to pursue a career on the baseball diamond instead of the gridiron. Should Martinez hit a cog, the only scholarship option behind him would be RS freshman Brion Carnes, who doesn’t have a single snap of college ball under his belt. New offensive coordinator Tim Beck had better minimize the running role of Martinez, or the Huskers could be in real trouble once they get into the Big Ten schedule.

The second thing that worries me about the Huskers is their youth on the line. Although they’re returning 7 starters to a dynamic offense, only 2 of those are on the offensive line. LG Andrew Rodriguez, RG Brent Qvale, and RT Marcel Jones all have big shoes to fill, trying to continue the dominance of a line which paved the road for almost 3500 yards on the ground last year. They’ll be anchored by senior C Mike Caputo, who went from being a walk-on to All-Big 12 Honorable Mention last year, so at least the leadership part is there.